Ecological Monographs
○ Wiley
Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match Ecological Monographs's content profile, based on 18 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.
Harrison, S. P.; Shen, Y.; Haas, O.; Sandoval, D.; Sapkota, D.; Prentice, I. C.
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Fuel availability and fuel dryness are consistently shown to be the primary drivers of wildfire intensity and burnt area. Here we hypothesise that differences in the timing of fuel build up and drying determine the optimal time for wildfire occurrence. We use gross primary production (GPP) as a measure of biomass production and hence fuel availability, and vapour pressure deficit (VPD) as a measure of fuel drying. We use the phase difference in the seasonal time course and magnitude of GPP and VPD to cluster regions that should therefore have distinct wildfire behaviour. We then show that each of the resultant clusters is distinctive in terms of one or more fire properties, specifically number of ignitions, burnt area, size, speed, duration, intensity, and length of the wildfire season. The emergence of distinct regimes as a function of two biophysical drivers reflects the fact that both vegetation and wildfire properties are a consequence of eco-evolutionary adaptions to environmental conditions. We then examine the degree to which human activities or vegetation properties modify these fire regimes within each of these clusters. Variability in GPP and VPD largely explains the within-cluster variation in fire properties. The type of vegetation cover has an influence on burnt area and carbon emissions in particular, while human activities are more important for fire properties such as size, rate of spread and duration largely through their influence of landscape fragmentation. Although both human activities and vegetation properties modify wildfire regimes, the ability to distinguish wildfire regimes using GPP and VPD alone emphasizes that land management, fire use and fire suppression are constrained by environmental conditions. This eco-evolutionary optimality approach to characterising wildfire regimes provides a basis for designing a simple fire model for Earth System modelling.
Nordstrom, S. W.; Loesberg, J. A.; Battersby, P.; Williams, J. L.
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Timing of flowering is shifting with climate change. Although climate-driven shifts in phenology sometimes affect seed production, whether changing phenology will scale up to affect population dynamics of long-lived plants remains largely unknown, particularly under changing precipitation. Understanding how phenology affects persistence and extinction risk is a pressing need given contemporary biodiversity loss. We combined nearly a decade of demographic censuses and a four-year phenological survey in a rainfall manipulation experiment to examine the effects of experimental drought and irrigation on flowering phenology, vital rates (e.g., survival and individual growth), and population growth in the perennial herb Lomatium utriculatum. We found that drought advanced flowering by 3.3 days on average, and that earlier-flowering plants produced more seeds regardless of treatment. However, both rainfall treatments reduced seed production compared to controls. We quantified the phenology-mediated and direct, non-phenological effects of rainfall manipulation on population growth rates using integral projection models and a life table response experiment. Drought and irrigation increased {lambda} through increased individual growth, but these effects were partially negated by treatment-driven declines in seed output. In contrast, changes to seed production resulting from shifting flowering times had negligible effects on population growth. Our results suggest that climate-driven phenological shifts may only marginally impact population dynamics in perennial plants and highlight that assessing phenologys consequences for persistence under climate change must also account for direct demographic effects of the climate driver(s) themselves. SignificanceWill changing flowering times under climate change increase extinction risk in plant populations? Despite well-documented earlier flowering and its influence on the number of offspring produced, how changing flowering times will affect population growth or decline is still mostly unknown. We study this in a perennial wildflower subject to changes in rainfall. While we found that drought meant earlier flowering and that, all else equal, early flowering meant more seeds, these effects only marginally affected population growth. Instead, population growth was influenced mostly by rainfall-driven changes to individual plant growth. While shifting flowering times remain an important indicator of climate change, assessing extirpation in plants requires considering flowering times as only one of many life cycle processes changing with climate.
Ardichvili, A. N.; Bittlingmaier, M.; Freschet, G. T.; Loreau, M.; Arnoldi, J.-F.
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O_LISpecies diversity potentially has a dual effect on communities: a generally positive effect on overall community biomass, reflecting the expression of species response and interaction traits, and a poorly characterised effect on mass-specific species contribution to ecosystem functions, reflecting the expression of their effect traits. Disentangling the effects of biodiversity on total biomass from those on effect trait expression would help settle a long-standing debate by clarifying how biodiversity relates to both facets of species effects on ecosystem functioning. C_LIO_LIFollowing the classical BEF approach, we calculate expected ecosystem function based on observed functioning in monoculture. We then derive a net biodiversity effect (NBE) and decompose it into four components: the classical complementarity and selection effects on total community biomass, and complementarity and selection effects on effect trait expression. The latter two reflect, respectively, a complementarity or facilitation in how effect traits influence the function, and how species with the highest potential for increasing the function become dominant in the community. C_LIO_LIWe illustrate this NBE decomposition with three ecosystem functions (nitrogen retention capacity, soil hydraulic conductivity improvement, and forage digestibility) measured in assembled communities under controlled experimental conditions of perennial grassland plants. Regarding nitrogen retention, we find a positive complementary effect via total biomass, but a negative biodiversity effect via effect trait expression. For hydraulic conductivity improvement, biodiversity effects are mostly mediated by total biomass. As for forage digestibility, we found a positive complementarity effect on trait expression, outweighed however by a negative selection effect. This analysis reveals how biodiversity may have contrasting effects on ecosystem functions via its impact on biomass and effect trait expression. C_LI SynthesisSeparating between the effect of biodiversity on plant community biomass and on effect trait expression at the community level is one important step towards understanding the pathways by which diverse plant communities drive ecosystem functioning.
Karrenberg, S.; Barni, E.; Bossdorf, O.; Danko, H.; Giaccone, E.; Parepa, M.; Richards, C. L.; Sebesta, N.; Irimia, R.-E.
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The ecological and evolutionary processes determining species range limits remain poorly understood. Ultimately, range limits depend on the species abilities to persist under heterogeneous conditions, by adaptive differentiation and phenotypic plasticity, including transgenerational effects. To investigate ecological differentiation and transgenerational effects in the clonal invasive knotweed, Reynoutria japonica, in Europe, we conducted a two-phase transplant experiment: plants sampled along the entire latitudinal gradient were planted in three sites located at the northern range margin, mid-range and near the southern range margin, and then re-transplanted among all three sites after two years. Biomass production and allocation were generally not associated with latitude of origin and previous growth at the same site did not promote performance. We therefore find no evidence that adaptive differentiation or transgenerational effects contribute to the wide distribution of R. japonica in Europe. However, at the northern site, with a 25% shorter season, knotweed plants invested much less biomass below-ground, and the pattern was further strengthened in plants that had grown in the northern site in the previous generation. Overwintering below-ground rhizomes are essential for survival and spread. We further explored limiting climate conditions in a species distribution model for the European range and found that mean annual temperature and temperature annual range are the main predictors of the European distribution of R. japonica. Taken together, our study suggests that low temperatures and associated short seasons may pose a limit to the broad environmental tolerance of R. japonica and restrict its northward spread by reducing below-ground biomass accumulation.
Berger, J.; Wittmann, M. J.
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The Allee effect is a phenomenon where individual fitness is reduced in small populations, for example because of mate-finding difficulties or increased predation. Allee effects matter in conservation biology because they can drive small populations to extinction. The severity of Allee effects can depend on traits such as mate-search rate and defense against predators. Many natural populations exhibit considerable intraspecific trait variation (ITV) in such traits, but most studies so far assume these traits to be constant. Thus the impact of ITV on populations with Allee effect is largely unknown. Here we create two individual-based stochastic models that simulate a small population experiencing either a mate-finding Allee effect or a predator-driven Allee effect. We analyze how ITV, trait inheritance, and mutation affect the proportion of surviving populations. Under the mate-finding Allee effect, higher ITV hindered population survival and increased Allee thresholds. This can be explained by Jensens inequality and the negative curvature of the mate-finding function. Under the predator-driven Allee effect, ITV effects were weak, but higher mutation standard deviations were beneficial, likely because they provided more substrate for selection to act on. We thus recommend to take into account ITV when dealing with threatened populations with an Allee effect.
Vieira, B.; Lopes, F.; Griffith, D. M.; Gusman, E.; Espinosa, C. I.
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Stingless bees are key pollinators in tropical ecosystems, yet their ecological dynamics remain poorly understood in highly seasonal environments such as the seasonally dry tropical forests of Ecuador. These ecosystems experience pronounced climatic seasonality, with sharp transitions between dry and wet periods that strongly affect floral resource availability. Understanding interspecific competition and niche partitioning in such systems is critical, particularly given the global decline of pollinators. We investigated resource use and niche dynamics in two native stingless bees, Melipona mimetica and Scaptotrigona sp., by quantifying pollen, nectar, and resin collection across seasons. Log-linear models were used to test the effects of species, season, and their interaction on resource use, while non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) assessed niche overlap. Contrary to the expectation that niche overlap increases under resource scarcity, we found greater overlap during the wet season, when resources are more abundant. This suggests that both species converge on high-quality floral resources during peak availability, reflecting an adaptive response to strong environmental seasonality. Pollen use remained stable across seasons, consistent with generalist foraging behavior. In contrast, nectar collection increased significantly during the wet season, while resin exhibited a shared seasonal peak, likely associated with synchronized nest construction or maintenance. These findings reveal context-dependent competition dynamics and highlight the role of environmental seasonality in shaping pollinator interactions. Our study provides new insights into the ecology of threatened stingless bees and contributes to their conservation in tropical dry forest ecosystems.
Novella-Fernandez, R.; Brandl, R.; Chalmandrier, L.; Pinkert, S.; Talavera, G.; Zeuss, D.; Hof, C.
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O_LISeasonal patterns of species appearances constitute a major component of diversity variation. Theory attributes this phenological structuring of communities to the alignment of life cycles to suitable moments and to constraints of seasonality on development, yet the specific mechanisms operating across taxa remain largely unresolved. In insects, body size and colour are key functional traits that contribute to driving spatial community assembly through their link to thermoregulatory performance and development. C_LIO_LIHere we analyse variation in mean body size and colour lightness of 483 butterfly assemblages across Great Britain and throughout the season to test whether trait alignment with seasonal environment and developmental constraints may shape the phenological structuring of communities. C_LIO_LIBoth body size and body colour varied more along season than across space, emphasizing the importance of phenology on diversity variation. Body size was larger early and late in the season, i.e. under conditions of low temperature and solar radiation. This pattern contrasted with the spatial trends found and was driven by species overwintering as adults, which we interpret as being likely due to energetic constraints. Body colour, conversely, was darker early and late in the season, mirroring the spatial pattern found, and suggesting a thermoregulatory alignment with seasonal conditions. Furthermore, covariation between body size and colour suggests a thermoregulatory interaction between both traits. C_LIO_LIOur findings suggest that life-cycle constraints and seasonal thermoregulatory alignment contribute to shaping the phenological structure of insect communities. C_LI
Meziere, Z.; Byrne, I.; Popovic, I.; Khalil, A.; Humanes, A.; Guest, J.; Chan, C. X.; Riginos, C.; McGuigan, K.
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Extreme climatic events are reshaping ecosystems worldwide as individual organisms vary markedly in their ability to withstand these disturbances. Deciphering patterns of persistence on local scales is therefore critical for predicting biodiversity trajectories under intensifying climate extremes. In this study, we examined variation in thermal stress responses among individuals of the coral Stylophora pistillata species complex during a heatwave at Heron Island Reef, Australia. More than half of the focal coral colonies died on the reef, and survival of coral fragments maintained under ex situ common thermal stress conditions was significantly correlated with the survival of their source colony. This demonstrates that survival differences result largely from biological factors rather than differential thermal exposure across reef habitats. Under common garden conditions, we observed striking differences in bleaching severity and survival times among three sympatric cryptic taxa and their highly host-specific symbiont community. Within the most locally common taxon, corals from historically warmer and more seasonally variable reef habitats seem more susceptible to bleaching, contrary to expectations. Together, these results reveal how biological differences among cryptic taxa and among individuals can shape coral responses during a heatwave and advance our understanding of coral vulnerability in a rapidly warming world.
Vieira, B.; Goncalves, D.; Oliveira, N.
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Climate change and anthropogenic pressures are reshaping marine food webs, altering prey availability and affecting top predators. The European Shag (Gulosus aristotelis), a coastal demersal seabird, provides a valuable model for examining environmentally mediated dietary variation, given its trophic plasticity and capacity to adjust prey use according to local availability, while also allowing assessment of potential demographic consequences. This study investigated spatial and temporal variation in diet at two Portuguese colonies (Berlengas and Arrabida) between 2016 and 2024 and assessed long-term reproductive productivity at Berlengas. A total of 468 regurgitated pellets were analysed, and diet composition was quantified using the Index of Relative Importance (IRI). Generalised additive models were applied to assess environmental, spatial, and period-specific effects on diet composition, while reproductive productivity was modelled in relation to prey biomass. Diet variation was primarily explained by environmental predictors, including sea surface temperature, chlorophyll-a concentration, and zooplankton, whereas year per se had no significant effect, indicating environmentally mediated bottom-up effects. Spatial differences between colonies reflected contrasting prey field structures, and period-specific patterns suggested increased specialisation during breeding. Higher biomass of sandeels (Ammodytidae) was positively associated with reproductive output, whereas shifts toward lower-energy prey were associated with reduced productivity. These findings demonstrate that environmentally driven dietary change has measurable demographic consequences, underscoring the importance of bottom-up processes in shaping seabird population dynamics and informing conservation strategies under ongoing climate change.
Tseng, Y.-P.; Wei, S.; Ke, P.-J.
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1. Biotic insular systems differ from conventional islands because patch attributes change dynamically as patch-forming organisms develop. It therefore remains unclear whether the assembly mechanisms predicted by island biogeography theory (IBT) operate in such systems. Here, using epiphytic birds nest ferns (BNFs, Asplenium nidus) as a model biotic island system, we tested whether fungal and bacterial community diversity conform to species-area relationships predicted by IBT. With a stratified sampling scheme, we further evaluated the underlying mechanisms (passive sampling, disproportionate effects, and environmental heterogeneity) of species-area relationships, and assessed isolation effects using distance-decay patterns in community similarity. 2. We treated each BNF individual as a microbial island and categorized 24 BNFs into three size classes. Microbial and humus samples from multiple litter layers within each BNF individual were collected; microbial communities were characterized using next-generation sequencing, and humus chemical properties (pH and C:N ratio) were measured to characterize microhabitat conditions. To investigate mechanisms underlying species-area relationships, we applied a multi-scale rarefaction framework to partition diversity components. Spatial distances among BNFs were quantified to evaluate isolation effects. 3. Consistent with IBT predictions, both fungal and bacterial communities exhibited positive species-area relationships, indicating that larger BNFs harbored greater microbial richness. Diversity partitioning suggested that fungal richness increased through both disproportionate effects and environmental heterogeneity, whereas bacterial richness was primarily driven by environmental heterogeneity. Within larger ferns, greater heterogeneity in litter pH was associated with increased species turnover across litter layers, suggesting that decomposition-driven pH gradients create diverse microhabitats that promote microbial diversity. In addition, both microbial communities exhibited distance-decay patterns, indicating that isolation contributes to community assembly through dispersal limitation. 4. Synthesis. Our results demonstrate that BNFs function as a biotic insular system, in which both patch size and spatial isolation structure microbial diversity, consistent with predictions from IBT. Furthermore, we show that environmental heterogeneity generated by the growth of the habitatforming BNF mechanistically links island area to microbial diversity. Our study integrates both local habitat heterogeneity and regional spatial structure, highlighting the potential to extend IBT and metacommunity theory to organism-formed habitats.
Cicchino, A. S.; Collier, J.; Bieg, C.; Davis, K.; Ghalambor, C. K.; Robey, A. J.; Sunday, J. M.; Vasseur, D.; Bernhardt, J. R.
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Projecting species responses to changing temperatures remains a major challenge in ecology. Central to this effort is harnessing our understanding of species thermal physiological traits, which underlie ectotherm fitness. These traits are typically characterized by describing performance across temperatures (thermal performance curve, TPC), and/or tolerance limits, which capture endpoints of biological failure. Despite their importance, we still lack an understanding of the functional relationship between these traits, limiting our ability to integrate them into comprehensive vulnerability assessments. Using a synthesized dataset of >100 ectotherms, we tested how heat tolerance (CTmax) relates to key TPC traits: thermal optima, thermal maxima, and the supra-optimal range of temperatures where performance is positive. Across taxa, TPC traits were positively related to CTmax, demonstrating a link between heat tolerance and temperature-dependent performance at sub-critical temperatures. While acute locomotor performance scaled proportionally with CTmax, metabolic processes and sustained locomotion scaled sub-proportionally, suggesting decoupling of CTmax and performance among high-CTmax species. This suggests that using CTmax as a comparative metric may overestimate thermal safety margins for metabolic processes critical to growth. Our results indicate that while CTmax and TPCs reflect shared underlying constraints--particularly in acute neuro-muscular traits--their relationship is dependent on timescale and the TPC response trait. Our findings connect our understanding of the processes that maintain performance over thermal gradients with those that cause performance to fail, improving our ability to project species persistence in a warming world. SignificanceClimate warming is increasingly reshaping the thermal environments that govern species persistence worldwide. Predicting vulnerability requires integrating multiple aspects of thermal biology, yet relationships among widely used thermal traits remain poorly understood. By synthesizing data from more than 100 ectotherm species, we quantify links between acute heat tolerance and traits describing sustained biological function across temperatures. We show that performance at relatively benign temperatures and performance at thermal extremes are coupled, but this coupling is strongly process and timescale dependent, with close correspondence for short term locomotion but weaker coupling for metabolic processes. Our results link the processes that maintain performance across temperatures with those that cause failure, fundamentally advancing our projections of species performance in a warming world.
Kükrer, M.
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Understanding how climate shapes intraspecific genetic turnover is critical for predicting biodiversity responses to global change, yet such analyses remain limited for systems where natural adaptation and human-mediated dispersal jointly structure diversity. Here, we investigate the spatio-temporal dynamics of genetic composition in the western honey bee (Apis mellifera) across Anatolia and Thrace, a major historical refugium harboring five subspecies. Using a dataset of 672 individuals genotyped at 30 microsatellite loci, we characterize population structure and model ancestry compositions as a function of environmental and geographic variables. We integrate Gradient Forests and Generalized Dissimilarity Modelling to identify key climatic drivers of intra-specific turnover and project future changes under multiple CMIP6 climate scenarios. We detect five major ancestral groups with widespread admixture structured by both spatial processes and environmental gradients. While geographic distance explains a substantial proportion of variation, climatic variables account for a large fraction of ancestry turnover. Spatial projections reveal distinct ecological regions corresponding to subspecies distributions, with high turnover zones aligned with major geographic and ecological barriers. Climate projections indicate substantial restructuring of ancestry compositions over the 21st century. Most ancestral groups show declines in persistence and resilience, whereas lineages associated with warmer and drier conditions expand under future scenarios. Regions of high uniqueness and refugia contract, while areas experiencing rapid turnover and novel ancestry compositions increase. Existing Genetic Conservation Areas provide incomplete representation of diversity and are projected to lose effectiveness under future climates. Our results demonstrate that climate change is likely to disrupt spatial genetic structure, promote admixture, and threaten persistence and resilience of honey bee populations. By modeling ancestry composition as a multidimensional proxy for genetic variation, for the first time to our knowledge, this study provides a scalable framework for forecasting intraspecific biodiversity dynamics and informing conservation and management strategies under global change.
Hasegawa, M.
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Conspicuous coloration in animals is generally thought to evolve and be maintained through inter- or intraspecific interactions such as mate choice, but this might not always be the case. The sight-line hypothesis proposes that conspicuous light-dark contrast in front of the eyes (hereafter, eyeline) evolves and is maintained due to viability selection, enhancing an individual visual acuity and thus evolutionarily associated with a particular foraging behavior that requires accurate aiming. However, empirical evidence that supports the sight-line hypothesis is virtually absent, with no studies demonstrating the key prediction that the direction of eyelines matters. Here, I tested the sight-line hypothesis using macroevolutionary analyses in terns and allies, which are a suitable study system, because they have variation in facial color patterns, including presence/absence and, if any, various angles of eyelines. They also have a large variation in foraging behavior, including picking, plunge diving, and skimming. As predicted by the sight-line hypothesis, tern lineages that require accurate aiming at foraging (e.g., plunge diving) are more likely to have eyelines. In addition, the evolutionary transition to the state with eyelines and these foraging behaviors was more likely to occur than the reverse transition. Furthermore, as expected by the fact that the direction of travel is upwardly deviated from the direction of the bills during skimming, the eyeline angle from bills was evolutionarily positively associated with the occurrence of skimming behavior. To my knowledge, the current study is the first to demonstrate that the direction of the eyeline matters, thereby strongly supporting the sight-line hypothesis.
Vanderlocht, C.; Galeotti, G.; Roncone, A.; Wells, K.; Tonon, A.; Ziller, L.; Lorenzetti, L.; Nava, M.; Corlatti, L.; Hauffe, H. C.; Pedrotti, L.; Cagnacci, F.; Bontempo, L.
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O_LIUnderstanding functional community structure and the niche-based mechanisms that enable coexistence among sympatric species is essential for explaining how biodiversity is maintained in natural systems, and for anticipating how ecological communities will respond to ongoing environmental change. Stable isotope analysis provides a process-oriented perspective on resource use by integrating information across time and space, thereby allowing reconstruction of realised isotopic niches that reflect multiple dimensions of ecological differentiation. C_LIO_LIWe applied this framework to a community of ungulates in the Central-Eastern Italian Alps, including red deer (Cervus elaphus), roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), and Alpine chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra). Using stable isotope ratios in summer-grown hair segments ({delta}13C, {delta}15N, {delta}34S, {delta}18O, {delta}2H), we quantified species-specific n-dimensional niche hypervolumes within a Bayesian framework and estimated niche regions, overlap probabilities, univariate differentiation and multivariate structure. C_LIO_LIDespite broad dietary overlap typically observed among these ungulates, we found clear isotopic niche segregation, with mean pairwise overlap consistently remaining below 40%. Three dimensions emerged as primary drivers of differentiation: water sourcing ({delta}18O), diet quality ({delta}15N), and habitat openness ({delta}13C). Specifically, chamois appeared to derive more water from plants in their diet rather than from drinking, and to consume a higher-quality diet compared to Cervids. Red deer relied more heavily on forested habitats for resource use compared to roe deer and chamois, and additional isotopic differences between red deer and roe deer may stem from fine-scale abiotic conditions like microclimate and topography. We found no isotopic evidence for differential niche breadth among the three ungulate species. C_LIO_LITogether, these patterns highlight functional differentiation across multiple ecological axes, offering mechanistic insight into how these ungulates segregate realised niche space despite substantial potential for resource overlap. This multi-element isotope perspective underscores the value of integrative, process-based approaches for understanding current coexistence as well as improving predictions of how mammal communities may reorganise under accelerating environmental change. C_LI
Razak, M.; Ben, A.; Dhere, S.; Thaker, M.
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Urbanization and human-induced environmental changes create unique and unprecedented thermal landscapes, yet the extent to which species respond to these changes remains poorly understood. One major challenge in studying these responses is the spatial mismatch between the small scale at which organisms experience their environment and the broader scale at which climate data are typically collected. We use Infrared Thermography (IRT) to quantify the fine scale microclimate in urban and rural habitats used by two tropical agamid lizards, Calotes versicolor and Psammophilus dorsalis. By combining field-based body temperatures and lab-based measures of thermal limits (CTmax, CTmin)and preferences (Tpref), we assess how the thermal heterogeneity of these fine mosaics of microhabitats influence the degree of thermoregulation (k) of these species. We find that thermal responses to urbanization are shaped by species-specific thermal traits and patterns of microhabitat use. Between the species, urban individuals did not differ markedly in habitat thermal heterogeneity, substrate temperature used or degree of thermoconformity. However, within species, P. dorsalis experiences warmer and more heterogeneous conditions in rural habitats, whereas C. versicolor experiences similar thermal conditions across habitats. Calotes versicolor also exhibits broader thermal tolerance and preferred temperature ranges than P. dorsalis. Collectively, our results suggest that P. dorsalis may be more susceptible to the thermal constraints imposed by human-modified landscapes. Overall, we demonstrate the critical need to account for microclimatic conditions and species-specific thermal traits when determining how animals respond to changes in the thermal environment expected from climate change.
Bellve, A. M.; Syverson, V. J. P.; Blois, J. L.; Jarzyna, M. A.
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Reliable models of species niches and distributions depend on accurately matching occurrences to environments via spatial and temporal coordinates. For fossil occurrences, time-averaging and age uncertainty can create mismatches between fossils and their associated environments, distorting inferred niches and distributions. Using a virtual ecology approach, we assessed how temporal uncertainty ({+/-}200 years to the full late Quaternary) influences niche and distribution estimates for four virtual species centered on three periods: Holocene (6,000 y.b.p), deglacial (13,500 y.b.p.), and Last Glacial Maximum (18,000 k.y.b.p.). We compared uncertain estimates, derived by matching occurrences with environmental layers drawn from different times within each uncertainty window, against true niches and distributions. We found that during environmentally stable intervals, niches and distributions were robust to temporal uncertainty until it reached {+/-}2500 years. Higher environmental variability reduced accuracy, with the greatest mismatch occurring during the deglacial. These results demonstrate both the promise and limitations of paleodistribution reconstruction.
O'Connell, K. A.
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Community-science platforms such as iNaturalist now contain tens of millions of georeferenced, photographically vouchered biodiversity records, yet extracting reliable quantitative measurements from opportunistic photographs remains methodologically challenging. Here, I evaluate the signal-to-noise ratio of iNaturalist photos for phenotyping Plethodon salamanders across two trait classes: continuous dorsal brightness (a proxy for ecogeographic clines predicted by Glogers rule and the thermal melanism hypothesis) and discrete color morph frequency in P. cinereus. I optimized a color-extraction pipeline using an agent-guided parameter search adapted from the autoresearch framework (Karpathy 2026; Schmidgall et al. 2025), exploring crop fraction, color space, normalization, and quality-control thresholds across 50 bounded micro-experiments. Applying the production HSV pipeline to 103,653 observations of 34 species, I found negligible geographic structure in dorsal brightness (R2 = 0.001), even within P. cinereus alone (n = 71,627). Variance decomposition showed that photographer identity explains 23.3% of brightness variance, geography 5.1%, species 1.6%, and time of day 0.3%, with 69.7% residual. In contrast, a hue-threshold morph classifier recovered a significant geographic signal in red-back frequency (R2 = 0.008, p < 0.001), 7x stronger than the brightness result, though still weaker than the supervised CNN of Hantak et al. (2022; pseudo-R2 {approx} 0.04). These results indicate that citizen-science photographs are poorly suited to continuous quantitative phenotyping under current collection conditions, whereas discrete categorical traits remain recoverable with appropriate classifiers. The autoresearch loop clarified the failure mode: no tested parameter configuration recovered a meaningful brightness signal from a dataset dominated by observer effects.
Sanka Loganathachetti, D.; Michalzik, B.; Sandoval, M. M.; Zerhusen, P.; Richter, R.; Engelmann, R. A.; Kuenne, T.; Wirth, C.; Kuesel, K.; Herrmann, M.
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O_LIPhyllosphere microbiomes are subject to microbial import from various sources and undergo substantial changes during phenological changes of plants. However, these processes are still poorly understood for forest canopies. We propose that phenology-driven changes in host properties, and rainwater-mediated, within-canopy transport shape the phyllosphere microbiome in temperate forests. Leaves and throughfall samples were collected from oak, ash and linden trees at top, mid, and bottom canopy positions at the Leipzig canopy crane facility (Germany) at time points representing early, mid and late phenological stages. Bacterial community composition was assessed by 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing. C_LIO_LIPhenological stages explained 19% of phyllosphere bacterial community variation, followed by tree species identity (12%) and canopy position (2%). Later phenological stages exhibited more homogeneous and functionally redundant phyllosphere communities along with a strong decline of plant pathogens and increasing potential for microbially mediated biocontrol mechanisms. Throughfall transported up to 1011 bacterial cells per litre with maximum bacterial fluxes at the canopy top. C_LIO_LIOur findings demonstrate that in temperate forests, phenology-driven effects on the phyllosphere microbiome are far more important than tree species specific effects. Extent and selectivity of throughfall-mediated mobilization may play a crucial role for the spatial heterogeneity of microbial communities in tree crowns. C_LI
Faticov, M.; Dahlberg, A.; Hjalten, J.; Lofroth, T.; Hekkala, A.-M.
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Deadwood is a key habitat for forest biodiversity, yet how tree species and deadwood type shape linked fungal-beetle communities remain poorly understood. We explored saproxylic fungi and beetles in a large-scale restoration experiment on birch, pine, and spruce deadwood created as burned standing trees, felled logs, girdled trees, high stumps, and uprooted trees. As expected, we found that tree species was the main driver of both fungal and beetle community composition, while deadwood type was the second most important driver. Fungal-beetle community correlations were context dependent: significant multivariate correlations were detected for pine and spruce, but not birch, and were strongest in burned standing pine, burned standing spruce, and girdled spruce. Across all tree species and deadwood types, fungal-beetle co-occurrence networks were consistently less nested and more modular than expected by chance, indicating structured, compartmentalized associations of fungi and beetles even within single deadwood units. SynthesisThese results show that maintaining diverse tree species and deadwood types is essential to retain specialized multitrophic communities and the ecological processes they support.
Menon, T.; Tyagi, A.; Managave, S.; Ramakrishnan, U.; Srinivasan, U.
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Migration is a well-described behavioural strategy that allows species to track variation in resources and climatic conditions by moving in response to seasonality. A common form is elevational migration, an annual short-distance movement undertaken by many mountain bird species globally. While studies show that the timing of migration may relate to food availability, the mechanisms determining which species migrate remain unclear. Our study investigated if the degree of dietary specialization explains why some high-elevation bird species in seasonal environments migrate downslope for the winter while others remain resident at high altitudes despite the apparent scarcity of their preferred food resources. We mist-netted birds along a 2300-m elevational gradient in the Eastern Himalaya and collected blood and faecal samples from 261 individual birds belonging to 18 species of high-elevation residents (ten) and elevational migrants (eight) in their breeding and wintering ranges. Using stable isotope ratios of carbon and nitrogen in whole blood and faecal DNA metabarcoding, we compared their seasonal trophic levels and dietary niches. Nitrogen isotope ratios showed that residents had a substantially lower trophic position in the winter compared to summer (-0.35 [-0.52, -0.17]), whereas migrants had a slightly higher trophic position in the winter (0.15 [-0.02, 0.32]). This trophic shift in residents was likely due to a decrease in insectivory and an increase in frugivory in the winter. The frequency of key insect orders (Lepidoptera, Hemiptera, and Coleoptera) declined by 20-35% in their winter diets alongside an increase in fruit, particularly from the family Polygonaceae (0.33 [0.18, 0.46]). Additionally, compared with residents, migrants showed greater overlap in their dietary niches between summer and winter (98% vs 80%). Because arthropod abundances in the Himalayas peak at high elevations in the summer and decline in the winter, we suggest that elevational migrants are likely dietary specialists that track resources, while high-elevation residents are dietary generalists that supplement their winter diet with fruit and nectar because of the scarcity of arthropods. These findings indicate that a species dietary specialization is linked to its migratory behaviour, providing a potential mechanistic explanation for how different species solve the challenge of seasonal resource limitation.